Former CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX Arthur Hayes at the beginning of this year warned about the fall of the crypto market. This time, he made a new forecast: bitcoin is more likely to rise again to $110 thousand than to drop to $76.5 thousand. If BTC manages to break above $110 thousand, the next mark will be $250 thousand.
Hayes gave two reasons for this:
- the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) transition from quantitative tightening (QT
Reduction of the money supply: The Fed sells assets and removes money from the economy, which usually lowers asset prices.) to quantitative easing (QEThe Fed buys assets and injects money into the economy, which raises asset prices.) for Treasury bonds. That is, once the Fed moves to QE, it will increase liquidity, the dollar will become weaker, and bitcoin will benefit from this, as it is often seen as a hedge against inflation. - He also believes that the tariffs will not have a significant impact on inflation, as Fed Chairman Jay Powell called any inflation caused by the tariffs «a temporary phenomenon».
The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) statement of March 19, 2025, said that starting in April, the Fed will reduce the monthly pace of Treasury bond purchases from $25 billion to $5 billion. In other words, QT has been slowed down, although the transition to QE has not yet taken place.
Another important event in April may affect the market. April 2 is a date that traders fear, as Trump’s tariffs on imports from China, Canada, Mexico, and the EU will come into effect. In addition, on March 24, the US President threatened to impose a 25% duty on any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela.
Source: X
